Myanmar Finds Willing Arms Suppliers in Energy-Hungry Neighbors

Michael Black and William Couchaux
World Politics Watch Exclusive

Worldpoliticalwatch.com: 03 January, 2007

Bangkok (Thailand):  In an effort to bolster its armed forces, Myanmar's ruling junta continues to diversify the sources of its military hardware, finding willing suppliers in countries that are eager to gain access to the Southeast Asian nation's abundant energy resources. Although China remains the principal dealer of military equipment to Myanmar, India has recently offered a multi-million dollar military assistance package to the junta's leaders.

According to the New York-based watchdog Human Rights Watch, the assistance package, presented by Indian air force Chief S.P. Tyagi on a visit to Myanmar's new administrative capitol at Naypyidaw in late November, would include light helicopters capable of being modified to launch aerial assaults, avionics upgrades for the regime's fighter jets and naval surveillance aircraft. The assistance, which is likely to be provided through "soft loans" or other very favorable terms, has drawn international condemnation and sparked concerns from human rights groups that the weapons will be used to attack civilians in the government's continued assaults against the country's minority ethnic groups.

Arms for Gas

Weapons and military equipment purchases by Myanmar's ruling junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), have substantially increased in recent years as the generals have gained significant earnings from the sale of natural resources to energy-hungry countries in the region. Claiming to have the world's 10th largest gas reserves, with an estimated 90 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, Myanmar is strategically situated between two of the world's fastest growing economies. In efforts to meet their growing energy needs, India and China are vying for leverage with Myanmar's generals. It comes as no surprise that both countries have been offering attractive military assistance packages to the junta.

India is simultaneously stepping up both military assistance and energy deals with the junta, signaling its intent to counter China's influence in Myanmar. In December, the day after the release of Human Rights Watch's report critical of India's proposed military assistance to the junta, Myanmar Military Chief of Staff Gen. Thura Shwe Mann reportedly met with the leader of the Indian Armies Eastern Command, Lt. Gen. Arvind Sharma, to discuss joint counterinsurgency training exercises. The meeting coincided with the announcement that India had signed yet another deal to acquire exploration rights to Myanmar's offshore gas fields.

The state-run Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL), in partnership with Singaporean company Silver Wave Energy, signed a deal with Myanmar last year to explore a natural gas block off the coast of Arakan State. GAIL, having secured shared agreements to develop other blocks in past years, is now involved in the exploration of more than10,000 square kilometers in the Bay of Bengal. Other partners in Burma's natural gas blocks include the Korean Gas Corporation, India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, and South Korea's leading export trading company, Daewoo International.

More on Defense and Military

The recent indictment in South Korea of 14 Daewoo officials illustrates how close the relationship between arms deals and natural gas concessions can be in Myanmar. The executives are being charged for illegally transferring weapons technology to Myanmar, technology that is reportedly being used to build an artillery shell production facility. Daewoo is now facing pressure on multiple fronts. Months before the recent legal proceedings against Daewoo executives, demonstrators were active around the globe denouncing the corporation's projects in Myanmar's gas fields, claiming that proceeds from Daewoo's ventures will only bolster Myanmar's oppressive military regime and further degrade the country's vulnerable environment. Even stronger public criticism and outcry has followed the allegations of Daewoo's direct support of Myanmar's military machine.

For years, the United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Myanmar's military regime, but the sanctions' effects have been minimized with the willingness of neighboring countries to cooperate with the junta. For both China and India, energy security is of primary concern, and both countries claim that discouraging human rights abuses and encouraging democratization are better done through engagement than through punitive sanctions. Furthermore, the energy-hungry rivals seem content to see potential European and American competitors sidelined by the sanctions.

Nonetheless, the United States is pushing ahead with efforts in the United Nations to adopt a resolution condemning Myanmar's junta. But it appears unlikely that the U.N. will be able impose sanctions against the military regime; China, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, likely would use its veto power to thwart sanctions. Beyond its energy interests, the Chinese government does not want to condemn the SPDC's human rights record for fear of inviting criticism against its own abuses.

Myanmar's Military

Myanmar's armed forces the Tatmadaw, is Southeast Asia's second largest conventional force, estimated at over 400,000 troops. It has more than doubled in size since the SPDC took power in 1989. Outside of guerilla warfare proficiency honed over the past half-century in battling various domestic insurgencies, the Tatmadaw remains largely inexperienced as a conventional fighting force, according to security analysts. Despite its already large size, Myanmar's regime continues an aggressive recruiting campaign, which has been widely criticized for targeting child soldiers.

Sources within the Tatmadaw suggest morale is low. "It's a matter of the haves who are a small minority and the have-nots who are the masses. The haves can afford to buy the loyalty of the few around them while the majority is at best discontented," noted one source.

Other obstacles faced by the Tatmadaw are lack of experience and a regime that has chronically ignored the importance of weapons maintenance. The Tatmadaw's arsenal is "thoroughly dysfunctional and a logistical nightmare," a Rangoon-based military analyst told World Politics Watch. "Their inventory is a complete mess. They thought it was a good idea to diversify and rely on numerous sources [for military supplies] in case one or another would cut them off. But they didn't take into account the adverse effects this would have on their ability to acquire spare parts."

At the moment, China provides 90 percent of Myanmar's military hardware, according to a National Endowment for Democracy report. China's total military aid to the SPDC since the junta came to power in 1989 is estimated at $1.6 billion. But the Chinese equipment is said to be of poor quality. "Even the Burmese don't like it. That's why they continue to look to Russia and North Korea for superior weapons systems," noted a Bangkok-based diplomat. Other sources that supply Myanmar's military include Serbia, the Ukraine, Israel and Pakistan.

Myanmar's weapons production capabilities remain limited. While the country can manufacture small arms ammunition of low quality, for example, it lacks the means to produce fuses for artillery rounds. While the Tatmadaw does have a handful of more advanced weapons systems, it rarely trains with them due to the expense of ammunition and, as such, is largely inept in their use. Moreover, some of the larger guns in the Tatmadaw's inventory are impractical for deployment in the rugged, mountainous terrain that characterizes much of where it fights in Myanmar.

While the specific components of India's military package to the SPDC have yet to be verified, it is unlikely it will significantly boost the Tatmadaw's overall military capability. "The Indian package will include outdated technologies from the 1960's, expired ammo and the likes. Basically junk," observed an Asia-based diplomat who spoke to World Politics Watch. He argued the package is a means for India to offload old supplies during a reorganization of its equipment warehouses. Regardless, the recent arms package likely will sweeten India's bids for energy exploration permits.

Although official figures on Myanmar's military spending are not available, the last report compiled by the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok, in 1996, estimates military spending makes up as much as 40 percent of "overall government expenditures." Most estimates agree this amount has increased in recent years. Given Myanmar's poverty, the huge proportion of national revenue dedicated to bolstering defenses reflects the paranoia of its ruling generals. Beyond the legitimate fear of a popular uprising, the SPDC's leaders, who reportedly often rely on astrologers' advice to guide policy decisions, have long been wary of a U.S.-led invasion of Myanmar, However unlikely the prospects of U.S. intervention in the country seems from the outside, all indicators point toward a continued drive by the junta to bolster the Tatmadaw.