Militancy and Political Trends in North East

In Assam, ULFA activities resumed during the month with the focus on Upper Assam districts of Dhemaji, and Sivasagar. Guwahati witnessed a bomb blast on 16 March in the busy AT Road. The intensity of counter insurgency operations in Assam is evident with over 30 ULFA cadres arrested and 19 killed during the first two months of the year.

The rebirth of ULFA in 2007 has been assisted by bases in Arunachal Pradesh particularly in Tirap and Changlang districts which are the two eastern most districts of the state in close proximity of Upper Assam, ULFA's stronghold and the Myanmar border. Located on the Indo Myanmar fault line, these districts provide the ULFA easy access to both the areas.

The 28th Battalion, the operational wing of the outfit active in Upper Assam is located here. Apart from this other groups also have hideouts in the jungles. The Army will have to launch Operational All Clear II to neutralize the ULFA in this area.

ULFA held the State Government responsible for breakdown of the talks in an article in the organisation's news paper, Swadhinata. The ULFA also asked the government to hold a plebiscite on its demand for sovereignty.

ULFA has been accused by Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor), a U.S. based strategic forecasting organisation, of contributing $6 million (Rs 26.4 Crore) to support candidates in Bangladesh backing both the Awami League as well as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. (Indian Express, 3 March 2007).

While the amount may be beyond ULFA's funding capability even if provided by the ISI, there are grounds to believe that the group would have invested in leaders in Bangladesh to ensure that it receives favourable treatment in Dacca whichever party comes to power.

Reports indicate that ULFA top leadership is ensconced in posh colonies in Dacca and are supported by the Director General Forces Intelligence or DGFI in Bangladesh as well as the ISI. Stratfor has also accused Paresh Barua, the ULFA commander in chief of being a, "wealthy racketeer" having businesses worth approximately $110 million across India, Bangladesh and the Gulf.

While Barua is said to be under the influence of the ISI and is stridently against talks with the government, Rajkhowa is supposed to represent a softer face of the outfit.

The ULFA, in a message on the so called "Army Day" of the organisation indicated that it would not give up violence before talks with the government.

It claimed that it was undertaking a freedom struggle against colonial injustice by Delhi. Prominent statements were given by Paresh Barua, the Commander in Chief and Arabinda Rajkhowa the Chairman.

The issue of handing over cadres by Royal Bhutan Army to Indian authorities after Operation All Clear in December 2003 was also raised by the ULFA as the Guwahati High Court ordered the government to submit original documents of the period.

The perils of insurgency in Assam are impacting development and investment in the state. The Oil and Natural Gas Commission had proposed to upgrade the infrastructure comprising of old pipelines, crude gathering stations and other drilling machinery worth Rs 4000 Crore. The ONGC's plans have hit a road block as it is not able to muster enough security cover to operate in the remote areas.

Two rounds of talks were held between the NSCN (IM) and the central government interlocutors during the month. The first round was held on 3 March. This was followed up by a fresh round in New Delhi on 29 and 30 March 2007.

The key issue discussed was increase in frequency of clashes between the two NSCN factions IM and Khaplang. The Khaplang group is reported to have kidnapped cadres of the IM which has raised the ire of the IM leaders who are likely to ask the government to clamp down on the K faction claiming that it is not likely to have the requisite power to act due to the cease fire.

The Naga position on Nagolim would also be clear after the Naga leadership has had opportunity to discuss these issues with the people during the recent visit of the NSCN (IM) leadership to Nagaland.

The NSCN (IM) was also facing pubic protests over reports of kidnapping and killing of two youth, Muhenii Martin and Hriini Hubert of Senapati district, allegedly by two of its cadres.

The people of Senapati district were extremely agitated and sought interrogation details of the two suspects. The NSCN (IM) confirmed that suspects were in custody but did not disclose further action.

The Congress Party returned in majority in the Assembly elections in Manipur winning 30 of the 60 seats, increasing its tally over the previous elections by 10. The complexity of issues in Manipur was evident when election results were announced at the beginning of the month.

Issues of development and credibility of the candidates appeared to be upper most in the minds of voters rather than aspects such as Nagolim or repealing the AFSPA.

Thus United Naga Council (UNC) which had supported integration of the Naga hill districts of Manipur with Nagalim could win only six of the eleven seats it contested. In other areas it had to face a tough contest. As indicated by A. Bimol Koijam of the Centre for Study of Developing Societies, Khantuanang Panmei who was forced to renounce participation in the elections by the NSCN (IM) contested from Tamenglong and won with a large margin. Koijam ascribes these diversities to the factor of stability. People in Manipur as per him want stability and hence have been voting for the party which is in power in the centre.

Thus parties which evoked regional sentiments such as the Manipur People's Party also did not fare well during the elections.

Sources: DESICRITICS.ORG