Burma/Myanmar: The Role of India and China

Guest Column:  By Dr. Tin Swe

It is unfortunate that the Junta has continued to be in power illegally and the two new powers have done nothing for a democratic change in Burma. The Failed States Index 2007 said, “The world's weakest states aren't just a danger to themselves.

They can threaten the progress and stability of countries half a world away." India is not half a world away from Burma but sandwiched between the 12 ^th Pakistan and the 14^th Burma.

However, the Burmese Generals have enough money to build a new capital Naypyidaw that the IMF estimated $122 to $244 million as annual running costs.

The state-of-the-art military arms from China, Ukraine, Russia, and others cost more than $3 billion. A June 8 news from Bangkok said, "Russia has put a price tag of half a billion dollars on plans to build a nuclear "research" center in Burma."

So the Generals are spending the resources of Burma lavishly, but not for its people. HIV/AIDS gets a pathetic $137,000/year for over 50 million people. UNICEF reports that government spending on healthcare in Burma amounts to 40 cents/citizen annually, compared to $61 in Thailand.

The assumption is that the China factor and Northeast insurgency propelled India to make a U-turn in 1992-93. It coincided with the time when India opened her eyes for the "look east" policy and the need for natural gas.  

Since then Indian foreign policy toward Burma is one of wooing the military junta, while convincing it that the democracy movement is an internal matter to be decided by the Burmese themselves.

During a visit on January 19, Pranab Mukherjee said that India had to deal with governments "as they exist”. We are not interested in exporting our own ideology. We are a democracy and we would like democracy to flourish everywhere. But this is for every country to decide for itself. 

“The fundamental problem in Burma that is not understood is that  Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, chosen by the people democratically has been imprisoned indefinitely.

The Indian Air Force chief, Air Marshal SP Tyagi, offered a multimillion dollar military aid package during his visit to Burma. The package included counterinsurgency helicopters, avionics upgrades of Burma's Russian- and Chinese-made fighter planes, and naval surveillance aircraft. 

Indian Army Chief of S taff, JJ Singh, also pledged to help train Burmese troops in special warfare tactics in early November. [1] The Hindu reported that India is stepping up military supplies to Myanmar including training to its military personnel to handle more sophisticated defence equipment. 

[2] At the same time according to Assam Rifles Inspector-General (south) Maj. Gen. B.K. Chengappa, said that the illicit flow of weapons from Burma is fuelling Manipur's insurgency.

[3] A couple of days ago, the Nagaland Post also said that Assam Rifles, the BSF, the CRPF, the IRP have seized approximately 39,000 AK series rifles in the last six years in NE of India. [4] So by providing arms to Burma, India is providing weapons for its own insurgents.

A Hong Kong based newspaper wrote last week, "The mainland has been courting Burma in recent months, with leaders in Beijing having decided that the Junta is now its most important ally in Asia. It illustrates how the current Indian approach to water down the Chinese influence in Burma is unproductive. I would like to pose a question.  Where does natural gas go from Bay of Bengal go to?

 15 years is enough to review a policy. I may be wrong. But in the course of current policy, I think the Indian government has achieved none of its realpolitik strategic aims in Burma.

Indian politicians may think any expression of support to the pro-democratic movement can be interpreted as interference in its internal affairs.

They are also afraid of misapprehension of joining hands with the West on democracy and human rights issues. Interference is merely a tactful diplomatic expression. I think it is the "will" that is lacking.   My question is, "Is not support for democracy better than support for military?"

The US and EU have imposed different degrees of economic and political sanctions while all neighbors are doing more business with the Junta. If capitalism is, apart from private ownership and free market, referred to profit orientation and investment, then China, India and ASEAN countries are more capitalistic than Americans and Europeans.

If one considers that the economic sanctions and political isolation  are a failure failure, one will  have to agree that constructive engagement of ASEAN and appeasement policy of India and China are malfunctioning too.

Indeed sanction is a hot debate among scholars. But without sanctions and the worldwide attention, the Burmese regime would have an unrestricted hand to oppress and brutalize its people. Thus, the threat of sanctions against the Burmese regime is both obligatory and advantageous.

This is the view of the Burmese people and not that of scholars. The Military Regime has survived because of its brutality, secrecy and the failure of most countries to stop investing in and trading with Burm

When the UNSC deliberated to include Burma into the formal agenda, the Chinese ambassador Wang Guangya opposed but said, "China therefore supports continuing efforts on the part of the Myanmar Government and all parties in the country aimed at inclusive dialogue and national reconciliation." I agree with him. The National Convention of SPDC is not inclusive.

Watching Doodarshan's Defence watch program of 24-6-07, it was regrettable that Indian high profile officials supported the national convention while blaming the  NLD for not participating in that convention.

It looks to us that India is not thinking of any change when it comes to Burma and I must recognize the power of military junta's propaganda machine, which is able to win over not only some of its own people but also Indian high profile bureaucrats who have faith in the national convention and roadmap and agree with disintegration theory of the regime. To that sham convention the invited elected MPs comprised only 1.38%. No NLD! No ethnic parties!

Indian diplomats are shy to speak about Burma these days. Burmese radio reporters to BBC, VOA, DVB and RFA are difficult to grab MEA or MHA officials. It is much easier to call politicians and bureaucrats from Thailand, Europe and America.

UN envoy Razali Ismail's trip to India to talk about Burma was a black-out. I am excited to read news on today's UN special envoy on Burma Mr. Gambari and the MEA meeting he has had. Then I may have to resort to the right to information in the largest democracy to know the details!

I' would partially agree with B Raman from Chennai Centre for China Studies who recently wrote that neither China nor India seems to be inclined to use their clout to persuade the Junta to hasten the progress on the road to democracy.

I think they equally want to influence Burma.   Both UN and the US focused on India, China and ASEAN since a couple of years ago.

Seeing the extraordinary meeting between US administration and three Burmese ministers in Beijing a week ago and Gambari's travel priority of China first and later India and Japan, India is just the onlooker. India's role has been nothing vis-à-vis China. It shouldn't be.

There are suggestions that a new strategy should be devised by the Burmese opposition. But I still think that national reconciliation through dialogue is the best relevant strategy.

NLD's call is endorsed by UN as well as EU and the US. Inside the country, 8888 generation students, political veterans and ethnic leaders also unanimously supported dialogue. The looked-for change is not the strategy but the Generals who are still afraid to come to the table.

One Indian analyst recently wrote: If India is serious about developing a strategic partnership with Burma, it must decide on a more proactive approach to Burma.

I don't know what his dose of proactive means. Alternatively, instead of Look East, I honestly propose Look Peoples' policy. Wherever I go around and whoever I met with, Indian people support our struggle.

So what I mean is to heed the views of the Indian people and the Burmese people. I wish for another good U-turn!

(Dr. Tin Swe is an elected member of Parliament  from Burma from the NLD now living in F-15, Vikas Puri, New Delhi and can be reached at his mobile- 981-000-3286,
e-mail drswe01@yahoo.co.in)