Watch Tower: Wooing Myanmar - pit falls

They consider that such military co-operation, along with India's help in building and upgrading roads, modernizing ports and other infrastructure development in Myanmar, is only helping the military to further entrench itself in power while brutalizing the society.

With opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest extended for one more year from May 27, and many world leaders demanding her release, many have been watching Indian policy.

Since early 1990s, India's foreign policy toward Myanmar is one of wooing the military junta, while convincing itself that the `democracy movement' there is an internal matter to be decided by the Myanmarese themselves.

During a recent visit to Myanmar on January 19, 2007, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that India had to deal with governments "as they exist ... We are not interested in exporting our own ideology.

We are a democracy and we would like democracy to flourish everywhere. But this is for every country to decide for itself."

Indian policy considerations in deciding to work closely with the military regime in Myanmar are quite obvious.

China has been strongly pushing itself into Myanmar with liberal, un-conditional, financial and military aid. India's insurgent groups finding `safe heavens' in Myanmar and its gas reserves are other compelling factors for New Delhi to court the military regime.

China has built a maritime reconnaissance and electronic intelligence station on Great Coco Island in the Bay of Bengal, some 300 kms south of the Myanmarese mainland.

According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), construction of the Great Coco Island station began in late 1992 with the emplacement of a 45-50m antenna tower, radar sites and other electronic facilities forming a comprehensive SIGINT collection facility.

In mid-1993, some of the 70 Chinese naval personnel began operating the new radar equipment and by 1994, the PLA radar and SIGINT facilities were complete and ready for use.

The FAS further said that the Chinese Army is also building a base on Small Coco Island in the Alexandra Channel between the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea north of India's Andaman Islands. These two islands, which have been leased to China since 1994, are located at a crucial point in traffic routes between the Bay of Bengal and the Strait of Malacca.

The Coco Islands are thus an ideal location for monitoring Indian naval and missile launch facilities in Andaman and Nicobar Islands and other east coast bases. In addition, China will also be modernizing Myanmar's deep sea port Sittwe on the Bay of Bengal for laying a pipeline for its oil and gas supplies from the Middle East, Africa and Myanmar which opens access to waters close to India to Chinese naval vessels.

The second important concern of India is its insurgent groups in the North-east using safe sanctuaries inside Myanmar, particularly after they were flushed out of Bhutan. During every visit, either Indian leaders to Myanmar or the latter's to India the Myanmarese leaders reiterated that they will not allow Indian militant groups to operate from their territory.

General Thura Shwe Mann, third in the official hierarchy of the State Peace and Development Council, visited India as did the Myanmar Home Minister, Maung Oo recently.

President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam visited Yangon in March 2006 and Senior General Than Shwe, head of Myanmar's military-run Government, to India in October 2004. On all these visits the Myanmar leadership assured New Delhi that elements hostile to India would not be allowed to use their country's territory. This clearly shows the Indian priority in talks with Myanmar.

The third is the energy sector. Driven by increased demands of oil and gas for its growth engine, India put its sights on its eastern neighbour.

Myanmar is believed to have Southeast Asia's largest natural gas reserves. New Delhi has long been planning a gas pipeline through Bangladesh from Sittwe, Myanmar's deep sea port on the Bay of Bengal.

India also had plans to purchase gas from two Myanmar off-shore gas blocks, A-1 and A-3 in the M series, in which India has a 30 per cent stake. India has also decided to extend a $20 million line of credit to help Myanmar upgrade its Than Lyn refinery.

It is very interesting to see the gains of India's `constructive engagement' of the ruling military junta in Myanmar. In April this year, the military regime decided in favour of China to sell the gas, ignoring Indian overtures. The Chinese government approved construction of a pipeline from Sittwe to Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, which borders Myanmar. India also had planned to build its pipeline from Sittwe and its award to China came as a `rude shock'.

Expectations of cooperation on dealing with terrorism and arms/drug trafficking have also come to a naught. Various indications hint that the military junta continued to allow `safe passage' to Indian insurgent groups for hide outs and supply routes for arms.

Shunned by the Western countries, Myanmar found China's unconditional liberal military and other aid quite attractive in the same way as that of other oppressive regimes in Africa and West Asia. In this scenario, India has very few options left.

Explaining the importance of Myanmar to India, Mr. Mukherjee said the two countries shared a border that was 1600 km long. "Myanmar is our only neighbour which is also a member of ASEAN. So our relationship is very much in keeping with India's `Look East' policy."

New Delhi has fast been expanding its relations with ASEAN countries. Any attempt by India to express support to democratic movement in Myanmar may be construed by the ASEAN members as interference in its internal affairs, which could destroy the assiduously built relationship with East Asian countries. Joining hands with the West on democracy and human rights issues could also be equally mis-construed.

While individual states of the ASEAN have serious concerns over the military suppression of democratic movement and its perpetuation of human right abuses, collectively they do not like to do anything that would affect the unity of the group.

The resolution of the Cebu summit of the ASEAN in January this year made a mention of Myanmar but it was more of a lukewarm reminder to the country for early implementation of the road map to democracy and release of political prisoners.

In contrast, the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (AIPMC) has been calling on the military government in Burma to bring about changes and democratic reforms in the country.

The grouping of ASEAN legislators from Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines and Cambodia have called for the unconditional release of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, as well as the freedom of over a thousand other political prisoners in Myanmar.

On May 14, 2007, 50 former heads of state from Europe, North and South Americas, Africa and Asia, including India, jointly called on the military regime to immediately release detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Among others, the letter was signed by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Filippino Presidents Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, Thailand Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai, Indian Prime Ministers V.P. Singh and Chandra Shekhar, and Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed.

New Delhi may, therefore, work through the Southeast Asian countries to put pressure on the Myanmar government for political reforms, while continuing to engage the military junta to impress upon it the genuine security and economic concerns of India.

Sources: Central Chronicle, India