Democracy in Myanmar

The Pioneer: 7 Septebmer, 2006

According to recent reports, Myanmar's military rulers intend to reconvene the National Convention, charged with drafting a constitution for the country, in October. Since the drafting of the constitution is the first of the seven steps constituting the road map toward democracy, announced by General Khin Nyunt, then Prime Minister, on August 30, 2003, the question arises whether the session would witness significant progress toward Myanmar's transition to a plural polity. A related issue is India's continued engagement with the military regime considering that it was once at the forefront of the international campaign for a transition to a democratic order in Myanmar.

As to the first question, it would be a miracle if the Convention's session witnesses any genuine progress toward democracy. The Convention, as it is constituted, is hardly a fit instrument for drafting a constitution that would be truly democratic and accepted by all sections. Pointing out that its format did not adhere to the recommendations made by successive United Nations General Assembly resolution, Secretary-General Kofi Annan reiterated, in a statement issued on February 18, 2005, by his spokesman, "his call on the Myanmar authorities, even at this late stage, to take the necessary steps to make the road map process more inclusive and credible".

Mr Annan had, in his statement, made clear what he meant by the words "inclusive and credible". In his statement, he has urged Myanmar's military rulers "to resume without delay a substantive political dialogue with the representatives of all ethnic nationality groups and political leaders, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, to help achieve a genuine process of national reconciliation". He had urged the lifting of the remaining restrictions on all political leaders, reopening of the offices of the National League for Democracy, which has been spearheading the country's struggle for a plural order, and the release of political leaders, including elected officials.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi remains under extended house arrest and barred from attending sessions of the National Convention. If this does not inspire confidence in the ruling junta's intentions, nor does the fact that the National Convention has been in session since 1993 without producing a constitution. It has a chequered history. Adjourned in 1996, it was reconvened on May 27, 2004, in accordance with the seven-step road map. It has been adjourned and reconvened several times since then. Significantly, the indication about the reconvening of the National Convention came almost immediately after the United States had urged the United Nations Security Council to discuss the issue of Myanmar, "because", in the words of its ambassador, Mr John Bolton, "of the threat to international peace and security that the policies and actions of the Burmese regime have caused".

In fact, whatever little Myanmar's ruling generals have done to signal a desire to move towards democracy, has been under external pressure. While the United States and the European countries have imposed sanctions, ASEAN members have been engaged in friendly persuasion. It would have been naive to expect otherwise after they had smashed the massive pro-democratic upsurge in 1988 through mass killing and repression in August of that year and cynically disregarded the outcome of the elections in May 1990 in which National League for Democracy, led by Daw Suu Kyi, won 392 of a total of 485 seats and 82 per cent of the votes polled.

The elections were followed by yet another round of savage repression while Daw Suu Kyi continued under house arrest from which she was released in 1995, no doubt under international pressure. For, in the interim, she had been awarded not only the Rafto Human Rights Prize and the Shakharov Prize in 1990 but also the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. Alarmed by the remarkable response to her, the generals again put her under house arrest in 2000 after a nine-day standoff with the authorities on bridge near Dala. Released in 2002, she again began touring the country until her motorcade was attacked near Depaiyin on May 30. Seventy supporters of the NLD were killed, many arrested. Daw Suu Kyi herself was kept in secret detention for three months before being put under house arrest again.

If its conduct toward Daw Suu Kyi is any indication, Myanmar's generals have no intention of leading their country to democracy, which brings one to the question of India's role. New Delhi's switch from a position of total support to Daw Suu Kyi and the democracy movement to that of political and economic engagement with the junta no doubt stems from three considerations.

The first is the growing influence of China, which has emerged as the principal supplier of weapons to Myanmar and is helping the latter to develop the Coco Islands as a naval base. While India-China relations have improved vastly, many feel, in view of Beijing's close links with Islamabad as well, that China is in the business of geo-strategically outflanking India. The second is the desire for economic cooperation, particularly in the area of energy supply, as a part of its wider Look East policy. The third is the need for Myanmar's help in putting down insurgency in north-eastern India.

While the need for deepening ties is undeniable, the questions of long-term policies remains, particularly since one cannot assume the indefinite continuation of the junta rule which is intensely unpopular. Apart from its fear of Daw Suu Kyi's popularity which is the principal reason for her continued house arrest, its feeling of insecurity is also reflected in the shifting, last year, of the country's capital from Yangon to a specially built fortress near Pyinmana in the midst of deep jungles. What happens when the junta falls and democracy arrives? The answer lies in engaging with the generals in track one while supporting Daw Suu Kyi and the democracy movement on track two. Unfortunately, India's track two warriors, who seek ceaselessly to build bridges with Pakistan and Bangladesh, have little time for Myanmar.