Asean may turn up heat on Myanmar

By KAVI CHONGKITTAVORN
The Nation / Asia News Network:  25July, 2006

IF EVERYTHING goes as planned, the Asean joint communique due at the end of this week's ministerial meeting in Kuala Lumpur will contain a paragraph expressing disappointment over the lack of progress on reform in Myanmar.  

It will be the first time an Asean communique takes on a member in this way.  

In previous communiques, Asean called on Myanmar, to no avail, to release Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. With growing frustration, and without measures to reprimand it, Asean leaders have resorted to all available avenues to demonstrate their disapproval of Myanmar's recalcitrance and obstinacy. 

Asean chairman Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar, who is also Malaysian Foreign Minister, did not mince words when he commented that Asean has been held hostage by Myanmar. No Asean leader had previously ventured to articulate this sentiment. As the meeting's host, Syed Hamid has already set the tone for the discussion on Myanmar. 

Last week, Asean legislators also issued a strongly worded joint statement after their two-day meeting in Kuala Lumpur. They bluntly told their governments that Asean must accept responsibility for finding a political solution, as the grouping had agreed to admit Myanmar in 1997. 

They also called on Asean to step up efforts to find political solutions through “pressure and persuasion,” and take concrete measures, including reactivating the troika mechanism. They instructed the Asean secretary-general to monitor developments in Myanmar closely and report them to Asean leaders. 

“Such reports should aid Asean to craft pro-active measures on Myanmar, including concerted engagement with China and India on the issue,” the statement reiterated. Two key issues to be highlighted by the Asean foreign ministers are the organisation's position on the debate on Myanmar in the UN Security Council, and Myanmar's future in Asean. Until now, Asean does not have a consensus on the Security Council's debate on its member. 

The Philippines last December supported the US-led move to have an informal briefing on Myanmar at the Security Council level. At present, Malaysia has shown willingness to support the council's debate, but other Asean members are still in two minds about it. 

Of course it is very difficult to get all of Asean to support the Security Council debate on Myanmar, even though the grouping’s efforts on the country have failed and it is time to invite the UN in. While the West worked hard to put Myanmar on the council's agenda, the Myanmar junta was on the offensive to press its immediate neighbours China, India and Thailand to oppose the initiative. 

Bangkok was therefore caught in an awkward position, trying to woo Myanmar on the one hand and trying to avoid upsetting the United States on the other. The ongoing political uncertainty did not help.  

But after a period of ambivalence, Bangkok indicated to Washington recently that it would not do anything to jeopardise efforts to put Myanmar on the council's agenda. Previously, Thailand said it would block any such attempt. 

While most Asean members are no longer willing to defend Myanmar, they do not want to expose further the ineffectiveness of the grouping's “peer pressure” system at the highest UN level. Nor would they want to be perceived as playing into US hands over Myanmar. 

In addition, several Asean members do not want to antagonise China and provoke its veto, knowing full well its strong support of the Myanmar regime. Beijing and Moscow have been opposing the efforts of Washington and its allies. Given the current global focus on more drastic international crises related to West Asia, as well as Iran and North Korea, these members think the time is not ripe for such discussions anyway. 

In recent months, Asean Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong has called on China and India to help progress on Myanmar. Syed Hamid echoed Ong's call last week, saying that the two countries were good friends of Myanmar and could sway its leaders towards democratic reform. But these pleas have so far not been heeded.  

The outcome of the Kuala Lumpur meeting this week will impact on the discussion on Myanmar's future at the 12th Asean summit in Cebu in November. Despite the ongoing political crisis, the Philippines would like to see continuing democratisation among its members, especially Myanmar. 

After years of lacklustre performance, President Gloria Arroyo, as the summit's host, would like to assert her leadership in Asean as well. Last week, Asean legislators have also signalled their strong support, and urged the Philippines to take the lead in exploring and advocating effective measures to spur democratic transition in Myanmar on top of the Security Council debate. 

A special document could be introduced by the Philippines to ensure that Myanmar's future intransigence will not be tolerated, and will instead be punished. It would coincide with the completion of the Eminent Persons Group's recommendations on the drafting of the Asean charter.